2027 ELECTIONS: TINUBU LOSES IN DELTA IF SHERIFF FIELDED BY APC, BY BASIL OKOH

There are consequences for every diabolic action in politics. The meltdown in Delta PDP today is the direct result of the contemptible action of Okowa in imposing Sheriff as the governorship candidate of the party in 2022. He scorned the outrage raised by James Ibori and the formidable left wing of the party. Okowa was determined to dominate everyone, brooking no opposition, including that of his own godfather.

He willfully spent whatever amount of government money demanded to buy the endorsement of Sheriff by the PDP screening committee who refused to accept Sheriffs certificates and splashed untold amounts on the judiciary, to make Sheriffs questionable certificates acceptable to qualify him to stand for election.

To make Sheriff governor of Delta state over more worthy candidates, Okowa was ready to break the banks. He actually broke the banks, pulling all assets and deposits from every other bank in Delta to fund the one he newly formed with friends. Okowa didn’t want other candidates because Okowa never wanted a smart person to succeed him. Smart people threaten his dominance and so he chose Sheriff, a veteran of the parks, over David Edevbie, James Ibori’s own choice.

It was Okowa’s unshakable will never to be defeated in the bid to make Sheriff the governorship candidate of PDP in Delta state against the equally strong opposition that caused the split of the party in two, the PDP and the DUG. He won the fight after wasting tons of money but PDP has now lost the dominance of politics in the state. PDP is now getting unnerved as indicators show it will lose the governorship election in 2027, if it fields the same Sheriff as candidate. The party has bled membership beyond redemption and is now conking out.

Alarmed by the inability of Governor Sheriff to take charge and stabilize the party, PDP state chairman Arenyenka has taken charge and seized the gauntlet to find solution and stem the haemorrhage of the party before it bleeds to its death and leave a hollow house. It is believed Arenyenka does not have the confidence that Sheriff has the mental acuity to rebuild the PDP but is instead finding ways to run away from the problems to a more secure party. The governor is running from the problem of his party to seek a party with better prospects built by someone else.

Okowa’s pyrrhic victory over the broad consensus built to choose a more worthy governorship candidate than Sheriff in 2022 has eventually worked against his long term interest of wielding power in perpetuity. His obduracy and vaunting ambition has helped reduce him now to a ward campaign hopper. Hubris, the sin of pride, must precede every tragic fall.

The plot by Sheriff to run away from a cracking PDP into the APC is believed to have originated from Okowa himself. It is part of the calculation and design to save Okowa the humiliation of ending up in prison for not being able to credibly account for the missing N1.3 trillion public money allegedly mislaid from DESOPADEC. Okowa is counting on Sheriff running to APC and helping to cover up the humongous crime by ingratiating himself with the president and the EFCC. Even the PDP chairman Arenyenka implied as much when he expressed the commitment of PDP Delta to return Tinubu and not the presidential candidate of PDP in the next election.

The postulation is that Sheriff has no mental capacity to conceive the brazen plot to steal another political party and subsume it’s leadership. It is a known and perfected practice of Ifeanyi Okowa to launch takeovers of other parties for elections. The deep end of the plot is for Okowa to launch into APC to save himself from prosecution for the alleged crime of stealing a colossal sum of N1.3 trillion. But President Bola Tinubu and the APC stable are no fools and are in pole position to play the game of political diabolism better than Okowa. They can sense the drummer playing in the bush for Sheriff dancing on the road in the bid for a hostile takeover of APC.

But then as APC Delta is being persuaded to inherit the credibility problems of PDP and Sheriff by adopting him to run under their banner, there is no guarantee that Sheriff who is now poised to gain the infamy of wrecking two political parties at once, has the popular following to win the governorship election from any party in Delta state. It is exactly because he lacks credibility and popularity to win that he is running away from PDP. The mere fact that he has even contemplated defection is proof that he lacks the confidence and gumption to win the 2027 governorship election in Delta state.

So there will be consequences for the choices he will make for the 2027 election. The internal treacheries and conspiracies within the APC fold can bring him to APC but cannot help him win the governorship election in 2027. There will be very stout opposition in APC for his candidacy and rule. The presence of Sheriff will rupture the APC so badly and cause massive resistance and disaffection that would tear the party down.

Above all of these, Sheriff has no capacity to pull voters in Delta state to Bola Tinubu and the APC in the election of 2027. This serious factor underlines his unfitness to serve APC’s strategic interests. No voter will trust or believe in him. Sheriff is a man Friday to Okowa and Abubakar Atiku and whether he admits or not, he will be looking out for their interests in the 2027 presidential election. No one should bet on Sheriffs loyalty. The man who bolted from the PDP that made him governor against all odds, can also betray any other group faced with attractive carrots.

In the face of the resurgence of the Obedient Movement in the 2027 election in Delta state, APC will be torn to shreds with Sheriff as its lead man. Sheriff is not a viable candidate even with the power of incumbency. Without the governors office, Sheriff would be the least viable candidate in Delta state. Last time, it was easy for PDP to buy off the poor candidate of the Labour Party. The fire next time.

In the 2023 election, the voters of Delta state wanted bread but Okowa handed them hot coal in the name of Sheriff. Now, he is being made to pay for a roundtrip ticket for his previous treachery.

@basiloko, is a public affairs analyst