Headline Inflation Reduces To 15.99% In October- NBS

Inflation

Nigeria’s headline inflation declined for the seventh consecutive month to 15.99 per cent in October, Mr Simon Harry, the Statistician-General of the Federation has said.

He said this on Monday in Abuja at a media conference while presenting the October Consumer Price Index (CPI).

According to Harry, the headline inflation reduced from 16.63 per cent recorded in September, indicating a 0.64 per cent decline.

He said, “With this it means that the declining trend for about seven months portends a positive signal given the favourable economic conditions, that rate of inflation in Nigeria would come down to a bearable level.

“So we are hoping that necessary measures will be put in place by government policymaking bodies to maintain this trend.”

Harry, however, said that it was not expected that the downward trend of the inflation figures would be affected by disruptions to economic activities due to violence in some parts of the country.

He added that it was rather very difficult to have such consecutive decline in the trend affected, except there was a shock in the system.

“We pray that there would be no shock to change the narrative and as long as there is no shock we expect that the decline would continue and the inflation rate would continue to decrease rather than remain static or increase,” he said.

The report  on month-on-month basis, Indicates that the headline index increased by 0.98 per cent in October, indicating a 0.17 per cent decline than the 1.15 per cent recorded in September.

It also said the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12 months period ending in October over the average of the CPI for the previous 12 months period was 16.96 per cent, showing 0.13 per cent point from 16.83 per cent recorded in September.

It said, “The urban inflation rate increased by 16.52 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2021 from 14.81 per cent recorded in October 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 15.48 per cent in October 2021 from 13.68 per cent in October 2020.

“On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.02 per cent in October, down by 0.19 per cent than the rate recorded in September (1.21) percent, while the rural index also rose by 0.95 per cent in October, down by 0.15 per cent than what was recorded in September (1.10) per cent.”

The NBS said that composite food index rose by 18.34 per cent in October 2021 compared with 17.38 per cent in October 2020.

It added that the rise in the food index was caused by increase in prices of food products such as coffee, tea and cocoa, milk, cheese and eggs, bread and cereals, vegetables and potatoes, yam and other tuber.

However, on month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 0.91 per cent in October, down by 0.35 per cent points from 1.26 per cent recorded in September.

The ‘’All items less farm produce’’ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 13.24 per cent in October, up by 2.10 per cent points when compared with 11.14 per cent recorded in October.

According to the report, on month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 0.80 per cent in October, down by 0.44 per cent point when compared with 1.24 per cent recorded in September.

“The highest increases were recorded in prices of gas, fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment, vehicle spare parts, non-durable household goods, solid fuel, passenger transport by road, passenger transport by air, garments and cleaning.

“Others are repair and hire of clothing, major household appliances whether electric or not, wine, clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories and Liquid fuel,” it said.

For state profiles, the report said that for the month under review, all items inflation on year-on-year basis was highest in Bauchi at 19.63 per cent, Gombe at 19.33 per cent and Jigawa at 19.07 per cent.

Meanwhile, Kwara at 11.82 per cent, Edo at 13.31 per cent and Rivers at 13.66 per cent recorded the slowest rise in headline year-on-year inflation.

On month-on-month basis however, October 2021, recorded the highest increases in Cross River at 2.14 per cent, Benue/Kebbi tied at 2.02 per cent and Yobe 1.71.

The slowest rise in inflation for all item occurred in Adamawa at 0.18 per cent with Kano and Kogi recording price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the prices of goods and services or a negative inflation rate).

The report also said that food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kogi at 23.69 per cent, Gombe at 23.29 per cent and Jigawa at 21.91 per cent, while Edo at 13.16 per cent, Rivers 14.46 per cent and Adamawa at 15.42 per cent recorded the slowest rise in year on year food inflation.

On month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Kebbi at 2.29 per cent, Yobe at 2.23 per cent and Akwa Ibom at 2.16 per cent with Kano, Kogi, Osun and Oyo recording price deflation or negative inflation.

CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living.